Surfing Uncertainty
Riding the Waves of Life with
Confidence and Flexibility
“Maybe instead of resisting the uncertainty of the future or trying to tame and control it, surf it. “
““Hi there, I’m Steve Schott, the voice behind this blog. With a background in [relevant field or profession], I bring a passion for [topic or field] and years of experience in [specific area]. When I’m not writing, you’ll find me [mention a personal hobby or interest]. My goal is to share insights and stories that not only inform but also inspire. Join me as we delve into [specific focus or theme] together.””
Are you looking for some certainty?
Job security? Financial security? Family security?
Peace of mind locking in a long-term career?
Look no further.
I don’t mean, “Look no further; I have the answers.”
I mean, “Stop.”
What you want is ephemera. You want rainbows and unicorns. '
You’re chasing a will-o-wisp.
Stop wasting your time.
You have all the same answers about the future as anyone. Anyone who says differently is a charlatan.
And you’re reading this because you’d never be happy making the same widget every day for 20 years or delivering the same service day-in and day-out.
And we’re here to talk about that, but before we do,
Let’s take a quick look at how bad we are at achieving certainty.
All the Ivy League trained multi-degreed people got the housing crisis in 2008 completely wrong. Banks, governments in the US and abroad, and rating agencies all believed the housing market was stable and that mortgage-backed securities were safe investments.
Then, in the course of a few months, America’s most “stable” banks and institutions failed: Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch—names so trusted that they were thought invulnerable disappeared overnight.
The total market loss exceeded 30 trillion dollars–that’s more wealth than the United States outputs in a year as measured by gross domestic product. Nearly every human on earth missed didn’t see it coming.
But maybe you read or saw The Big Short.
Maybe you see yourself as Michael Burry, who predicted the 2008 crisis.
Are you the one? Well, guess what?
Even Michael Burry isn’t the one.
He shorted Tesla and predicted it would tank—later closing that position at a considerable loss. He predicted a massive hyperinflation problem in the years following the housing crisis. But hyperinflation never occurred–even considering the inflation in 2023-2024, it’s nowhere what Burry predicted. He predicted a major water shortage in 2008—something that would roil the world and start worldwide water wars. Not seeing that.
Steve Ballmer, then-CEO of Microsoft, famously said, "The iPhone will never gain significant market share.” Darryl Zanuck, a film producer at 20th Century Fox, predicted “Television won’t last.” Lord Kelvin, a prominent physicist and the guy for whom the unit of temperature is so-named, said, “Flying machines are impossible” 8 years before the Wright Brothers flew at Kitty Hawk.
And on and on we could go.
We suck at being certain, but we think we’re certain with alarming confidence.
Face it, we’re frauds.
And this extends past stock market predictions, politics, and technology: Most of us–if pressed–can’t predict our futures either. In 2014, how much of what you thought about your life in 2024 would be completely wrong? Where you live, who you’re with, what your job is, who your friends are. Some aspect of this is likely completely different from what you thought.
And if it’s not, I bet you can find other parts of your life that you got completely wrong at other times.
If you can’t predict the world around you, and neither can anyone else, and
If you can’t even predict your own personal future,
How do you move on from being undeclared to, well, declared?
My advice: Don’t.
As you think about this state of UNDECLARED, ask yourself:
What skills do I have–or can I acquire–that will allow me to embrace and enjoy the next moment of uncertainty?
Surfing the Uncertainty
If you can’t predict the future of business, and you can’t predict your own future, how can you predict what you should do next?
Answer: You can’t.
If you’re trying to decide what to do next, whether you’re seeking the impossible dream of stability, predictability, finding your joy, or whatever thing you think will bring you happiness, maybe the thing to do is this:
Stop trying for all that.
And do what?
Maybe instead of resisting the uncertainty of the future or trying to tame and control it, surf it.
When you’re surfing, you can’t choose the size of the wave or how it breaks; you just ride what comes.
Putting the surfing analogy into practical advice in the context of celebrating being Undeclared, one idea to try might be this: Make choices that help you adapt to uncertainty in a way that makes you happy.
Ask yourself:
● Are you meeting as many people as you can from every career and background to not only build relationships but also expand your own way of thinking and make yourself more adaptable?
● If you’re feeling stuck in Sisyphean rock-pushing, do one or more of going back to school, taking another job, starting your own company, or demanding a new position let you walk away from the rock?
● If you’re an engineer, what skills can you learn that help you adapt to changes in the sciences? Does it make sense to narrowly focus on your field, or would learning other fields also make sense?
● If you’re managing your own business, can you expand your offerings in ways that allow you to pivot if the market shifts?
● Would you consider getting some more education, like an MBA or law degree, both of which give you a broad base of practical knowledge that you could apply in many fields?
I can’t answer any of those questions, but I propose this as you consider where you are and where you’re heading:
Consider what path sounds like fun and helps put you in a mindset that allows you to stop trying to tame uncertainty and instead ride it.
